After U.S. consumer confidence showed signs of weakening during the month of August, analysts warned that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9 %, reflecting growing household concern over the rising cost of living. 

Although consumer spending has so far remained relatively stable, with notable resilience in sectors such as durable goods, uncertainty about prices is beginning to raise concerns both in financial markets and in retail.

Experts point out that this situation could worsen if the new tariffs applied by the administration are more strongly passed on to final prices. If that happens, the effects will become visible in the coming months, when inventories of higher-cost products begin to fill store shelves across the country. In such a scenario, the ability of consumers to maintain the same level of purchases would be seriously affected, which would also impact business confidence and economic growth forecasts.

Economists explain that the current phenomenon combines two main factors: on the one hand, the persistence of inflation in key sectors such as food and housing, and on the other, a complex international environment that pressures supply chains and raises the cost of strategic imports.

In this sense, consumer resilience may be entering a stage of exhaustion, with a domino effect reflected in lower investment, reduced job creation, and consequently, a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year.

The situation places Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before a decisive dilemma: to further tighten monetary policy with new interest rate hikes in order to curb inflation, or to maintain a cautious stance to avoid damaging the fragile recovery in consumption. Whatever the path, it is clear that consumer behavior in the coming months will be crucial in determining the direction of the U.S. economy for the remainder of 2025.